Updated by FFRNews on November 4, 2025
The UN Climate Report has issued an alarming forecast: the world is “very likely” to exceed the 1.5°C global warming threshold in the next decade. Despite years of pledges under the Paris Agreement, global action remains off course, threatening to push the planet toward dangerous and irreversible environmental tipping points.
In its annual Emissions Gap Report, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warned that current policies would lead to a rise in global temperatures between 2.3°C and 2.8°C by the end of the century—well above the Paris target intended to limit warming to 1.5°C.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized the urgency of the situation, saying:
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. Progress has been made, but not nearly fast enough.”
The World Is Off Target Despite Pledges
Under the Paris Agreement, nations pledged to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2°C and ideally limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, the latest UN analysis suggests that even if countries meet their current pledges, warming would still reach at least 2.5°C by 2100.
The report, released ahead of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil, reveals that only 60 countries, representing 63% of global emissions, have updated their mitigation targets for 2035.
Global emissions increased by 2.3% in 2024, driven largely by rising fossil fuel use in India, China, Russia, and Indonesia. Meanwhile, wealthier G20 economies account for nearly three-quarters of all emissions.
Of the world’s top six polluters, the European Union was the only major economy to record a decline in greenhouse gas output last year.
United States Policy Shifts and Global Impact
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has reversed several environmental policies and initiated withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, expected to become official early next year.
According to UNEP, the rollback of U.S. regulations and delays in renewable energy projects could add up to 0.1°C of additional warming. The report warns that other countries will need to compensate for this by cutting two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually to stay on track.
The findings come amid growing concerns that the global political landscape—marked by economic competition, regional conflicts, and energy insecurity—is slowing coordinated climate action.
‘Every Tenth of a Degree Matters,’ Scientists Warn
Climate scientists stress that even seemingly small increases in temperature have massive consequences.
Dr. Adelle Thomas, vice chair of a UN scientific panel, told the Associated Press:
“Every tenth of a degree has ramifications on communities, on ecosystems, on coral reefs, and on sea levels. The difference between 1.5°C and 2°C could determine the survival of entire regions.”
Already, at around 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, the Earth is witnessing catastrophic climate effects—from melting polar ice caps to record-breaking heatwaves and widespread coral bleaching.
If warming continues on the current trajectory, tropical coral reefs could virtually disappear, while regions like the Amazon rainforest risk reaching a tipping point that could transform them into savannah-like ecosystems, drastically altering the planet’s biodiversity.
UNEP Calls for ‘Decisive, Accelerated’ Emissions Reductions
The UN report urges countries to slash global emissions by at least 42% by 2030 to have a chance at limiting warming to 1.5°C.
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable—starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement accompanying the report.
“But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. Achieving 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star—and the science is clear: this goal is still within reach if we act now.”
The report underscores that stronger policies are needed not just in developing nations but also among the biggest historical emitters, whose actions carry global consequences.
What’s Next: COP30 and the Future of Global Climate Policy
The upcoming COP30 conference in Brazil will serve as a pivotal test for global climate cooperation. Leaders are expected to discuss scaling up financial support for renewable energy projects, phasing out coal, and enhancing accountability for nations failing to meet emission targets.
Experts believe that technological innovation, green investment, and binding international commitments will be critical to keeping the 1.5°C target alive. However, analysts warn that geopolitical tensions and economic pressures could slow progress.
As climate-related disasters intensify—from record floods in Asia to unprecedented wildfires in North America—the cost of inaction is becoming clearer. The UN Climate Report calls this moment a “make-or-break decade” for the planet.
Global Reactions and Environmental Activism
Climate advocacy groups have echoed the UN’s warnings, criticizing governments for prioritizing short-term gains over long-term sustainability.
Greenpeace International said in a statement:
“This report is a final wake-up call. Governments must stop subsidizing fossil fuels and invest instead in renewable, equitable solutions that protect both people and the planet.”
Environmental activists across Europe and Asia have planned demonstrations leading up to COP30, urging leaders to “match their words with action.”
Meanwhile, developing nations continue to press wealthier countries for increased funding to adapt to rising sea levels, droughts, and other impacts that they disproportionately suffer.
For more detailed insights and updates on climate change and policy actions, visit FFRNews Environment Section and see the full report on Al Jazeera
